PokémonUltra Rare

Charizard ex

Obsidian Flames · #215 · 2023

Blended market value

$22.60+1.2% 30d

1 observed, 2 thin · read 8d ago

Price history

Latest

$22.60

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
189 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 8d ago
$22.60
Traderaliveasksnot blended
3 listings · Any condition · 9d ago
$34.64
SEK 342.67
median SEK 330.00
SEK 299.00–SEK 399.00
eBay soldliveestimatenot blended
85 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$49.26
median $40.71
$15.50–$120.00

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 6,061 · PSA 10 price $159 · float $963,275-56% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#11 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
6,061 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $159; that is 56% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 11 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-13% from $25.99 (2026-07-09)supply +0% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $22.60 on 2026-10-21 against a window high of $25.99 on 2026-07-09: 13% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 6,041 → 6,061 (+0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationObsidian Flames: top-3 share 38% · HHI 0.08outside the set's top 3
Outside Obsidian Flames's top 3, which together hold 38% of a $411 set value over 230 cards (HHI 0.08, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 330 kr ≈ $33.36 · 3 asks · 2026-10-20+48% vs US market $22.60-18% vs eBay sold median $40.71 (85 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
3 Swedish asks with a median of 330 kr ≈ $33.36 on 2026-10-20, 48% above the US near-mint market of $22.60 (2026-10-21), and 18% below the eBay sold median of $40.71 (85 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.