PokémonChase cardIllustration Rare

Ninetales

Obsidian Flames · #199 · 2023

The second most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($40 raw); PSA 10 population 4,754 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$31.41-8.6% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 1d ago

Price history

Latest

$31.41

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
283 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$31.41
Traderaliveasksnot blended
5 listings · Any condition · 19h ago
$41.70
SEK 414.40
median SEK 439.00
SEK 340.00–SEK 469.00
eBay soldlivenot blended
31 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$53.44
median $50.00
$23.70–$97.99

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 4,766 · PSA 10 price $316 · float $1,504,007-6% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#40 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
4,766 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $316; that is 6% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 40 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-40% from $52.47 (2026-05-10)supply +0% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $31.41 on 2026-10-28 against a window high of $52.47 on 2026-05-10: 40% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 4,754 → 4,766 (+0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationObsidian Flames: top-3 share 38% · HHI 0.08outside the set's top 3
Outside Obsidian Flames's top 3, which together hold 38% of a $411 set value over 230 cards (HHI 0.08, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 439 kr ≈ $44.18 · 5 asks · 2026-10-28+41% vs US market $31.41-12% vs eBay sold median $50.00 (31 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
5 Swedish asks with a median of 439 kr ≈ $44.18 on 2026-10-28, 41% above the US near-mint market of $31.41 (2026-10-28), and 12% below the eBay sold median of $50.00 (31 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.