PokémonChase cardSpecial Illustration Rare

Charizard ex

Obsidian Flames · #223 · 2023

The most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($101 raw); PSA 10 population 12,899 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$89.44-10.3% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 1d ago

Price history

Latest

$89.44

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
311 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$89.44
Traderalivethinnot blended
2 listings · Any condition · 19h ago
$767.35
SEK 7,625
median SEK 7,750
SEK 7,500–SEK 7,750
eBay soldlivenot blended
229 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$123.21
median $120.00
$1.00–$280.00

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 12,947 · PSA 10 price $710 · float $9,188,745+58% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#57 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
12,947 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $710; that is 58% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 57 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-37% from $142 (2026-06-05)supply +0% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $89.44 on 2026-10-28 against a window high of $142 on 2026-06-05: 37% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 12,899 → 12,947 (+0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationObsidian Flames: top-3 share 38% · HHI 0.0822% of set value#1 card in the set
Obsidian Flames's cards sum to $411 over 230 cards; this card is 22% of that as its #1 card, and the top 3 together hold 38% (HHI 0.08, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 7,750 kr ≈ $780 · 2 asks · 2026-10-28 · under the screen's 3-listing threshold+772% vs US market $89.44+550% vs eBay sold median $120 (229 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
2 Swedish asks with a median of 7,750 kr ≈ $780 on 2026-10-28, 772% above the US near-mint market of $89.44 (2026-10-28), and 550% above the eBay sold median of $120 (229 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales; under three asks, so the screen shows it unranked.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.