PokémonSpecial Illustration Rare

Ethan's Adventure

Destined Rivals · #236 · 2025

Blended market value

$28.18-15.4% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 4d ago

Price history

Latest

$28.18

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
195 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 4d ago
$28.18
Traderaliveasksnot blended
7 listings · Any condition · 8d ago
$55.98
SEK 553.00
median SEK 550.00
SEK 415.00–SEK 699.00
eBay soldlivenot blended
26 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$51.32
median $40.00
$26.00–$125.00

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 2,957 · PSA 10 price $158 · float $468,596-45% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#20 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
2,957 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $158; that is 45% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 20 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-44% from $50.26 (2026-05-21)supply +4% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $28.18 on 2026-10-25 against a window high of $50.26 on 2026-05-21: 44% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 2,851 → 2,957 (+4%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationDestined Rivals: top-3 share 47% · HHI 0.10outside the set's top 3
Outside Destined Rivals's top 3, which together hold 47% of a $1,345 set value over 244 cards (HHI 0.10, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 550 kr ≈ $55.68 · 7 asks · 2026-10-21+98% vs US market $28.18+39% vs eBay sold median $40.00 (26 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
7 Swedish asks with a median of 550 kr ≈ $55.68 on 2026-10-21, 98% above the US near-mint market of $28.18 (2026-10-25), and 39% above the eBay sold median of $40.00 (26 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.