PokémonSpecial Illustration Rare

Mega Sharpedo ex

Phantasmal Flames · #127 · 2025

Blended market value

$17.43+9.1% 30d

1 observed, 2 thin · read 4d ago

Price history

Latest

$17.43

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
324 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 4d ago
$17.43
Traderaliveasksnot blended
9 listings · Any condition · 7d ago
$32.30
SEK 319.11
median SEK 249.00
SEK 227.00–SEK 890.00
eBay soldliveestimatenot blended
54 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$61.29
median $66.00
$8.00–$142.50

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 8,198 · PSA 10 price $97.15 · float $796,436-74% vs Mega Evolution curve#5 of 40 in era · slope -0.16
8,198 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $97.15; that is 74% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 5 of 40, in an era where population barely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.16, R² 0.04, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-40% from $29.01 (2026-03-25)supply +6%
Observed raw near-mint $17.43 on 2026-10-25 against a window high of $29.01 on 2026-03-25: 40% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 7,706 → 8,198 (+6%), which is not flat, so new slabs are part of the picture.
Chase concentrationPhantasmal Flames: top-3 share 83% · HHI 0.41outside the set's top 3
Outside Phantasmal Flames's top 3, which together hold 83% of a $965 set value over 130 cards (HHI 0.41, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 249 kr ≈ $25.20 · 9 asks · 2026-10-22+45% vs US market $17.43-62% vs eBay sold median $66.00 (54 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
9 Swedish asks with a median of 249 kr ≈ $25.20 on 2026-10-22, 45% above the US near-mint market of $17.43 (2026-10-25), and 62% below the eBay sold median of $66.00 (54 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.