PokémonChase cardMega Hyper Rare

Mega Charizard X ex

Phantasmal Flames · #130 · 2025

The second most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($257 raw); PSA 10 population 1,895 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$188.03-20.9% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 1d ago

Price history

Latest

$188.03

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
162 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$188.03
eBay soldlivenot blended
166 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 16d ago
$439.15
median $425.00
$200.00–$899.00
Traderalivethinnot blended
1 listings · Any condition · 16d ago
$299.58
SEK 3,000
median SEK 3,000
SEK 3,000–SEK 3,000

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 1,989 · PSA 10 price $2,685 · float $5,341,201+475% vs Mega Evolution curve#31 of 40 in era · slope -0.16
1,989 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $2,685; that is 475% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 31 of 40, in an era where population barely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.16, R² 0.04, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-51% from $384 (2026-05-03)supply +5% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $188 on 2026-10-28 against a window high of $384 on 2026-05-03: 51% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 1,895 → 1,989 (+5%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationPhantasmal Flames: top-3 share 83% · HHI 0.4119% of set value#2 card in the set
Phantasmal Flames's cards sum to $965 over 130 cards; this card is 19% of that as its #2 card, and the top 3 together hold 83% (HHI 0.41, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 3,000 kr ≈ $300 · 1 ask · 2026-10-13 · under the screen's 3-listing threshold+59% vs US market $188-30% vs eBay sold median $425 (166 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
1 Swedish ask with a median of 3,000 kr ≈ $300 on 2026-10-13, 59% above the US near-mint market of $188 (2026-10-28), and 30% below the eBay sold median of $425 (166 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales; under three asks, so the screen shows it unranked.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.