PokémonChase cardUltra Rare

Mega Charizard X ex

Phantasmal Flames · #109 · 2025

The third most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($24 raw); PSA 10 population 20,241 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$22.31+11.5% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 1d ago

Price history

Latest

$22.31

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
324 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$22.31
Traderalivethinnot blended
2 listings · Any condition · 1d ago
$44.58
SEK 443.00
median SEK 799.00
SEK 87.00–SEK 799.00
eBay soldlivenot blended
185 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 16d ago
$101.67
median $74.75
$15.22–$300.00

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 21,900 · PSA 10 price $171 · float $3,744,243-46% vs Mega Evolution curve#11 of 40 in era · slope -0.16
21,900 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $171; that is 46% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 11 of 40, in an era where population barely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.16, R² 0.04, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-44% from $39.69 (2026-05-14)supply +8%
Observed raw near-mint $22.31 on 2026-10-28 against a window high of $39.69 on 2026-05-14: 44% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 20,241 → 21,900 (+8%), which is not flat, so new slabs are part of the picture.
Chase concentrationPhantasmal Flames: top-3 share 83% · HHI 0.412% of set value#3 card in the set
Phantasmal Flames's cards sum to $965 over 130 cards; this card is 2% of that as its #3 card, and the top 3 together hold 83% (HHI 0.41, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 799 kr ≈ $80.41 · 2 asks · 2026-10-28 · under the screen's 3-listing threshold+260% vs US market $22.31+8% vs eBay sold median $74.75 (185 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
2 Swedish asks with a median of 799 kr ≈ $80.41 on 2026-10-28, 260% above the US near-mint market of $22.31 (2026-10-28), and 8% above the eBay sold median of $74.75 (185 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales; under three asks, so the screen shows it unranked.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.