PokémonSpecial Illustration Rare

Lisia's Appeal

Surging Sparks · #246 · 2024

Blended market value

$22.47-16.6% 30d

1 observed, 2 thin · read 6d ago

Price history

Latest

$22.47

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
243 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6d ago
$22.47
Traderaliveasksnot blended
3 listings · Any condition · 8d ago
$33.98
SEK 337.00
median SEK 349.00
SEK 313.00–SEK 349.00
eBay soldliveestimatenot blended
24 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$48.20
median $28.00
$15.50–$140.00

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 2,186 · PSA 10 price $107 · float $234,864-60% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#8 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
2,186 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $107; that is 60% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 8 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-35% from $34.51 (2026-05-22)supply +1% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $22.47 on 2026-10-23 against a window high of $34.51 on 2026-05-22: 35% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 2,158 → 2,186 (+1%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationSurging Sparks: top-3 share 48% · HHI 0.10outside the set's top 3
Outside Surging Sparks's top 3, which together hold 48% of a $1,095 set value over 252 cards (HHI 0.10, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 349 kr ≈ $35.19 · 3 asks · 2026-10-21+57% vs US market $22.47+26% vs eBay sold median $28.00 (24 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
3 Swedish asks with a median of 349 kr ≈ $35.19 on 2026-10-21, 57% above the US near-mint market of $22.47 (2026-10-23), and 26% above the eBay sold median of $28.00 (24 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.