PokémonChase cardSpecial Illustration Rare

Pikachu ex

Surging Sparks · #238 · 2024

The most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($287 raw); PSA 10 population 10,569 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$256.63-10.0% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 1d ago

Price history

Latest

$256.63

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
150 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$256.63
Traderaliveasksnot blended
9 listings · Any condition · 1d ago
$336.60
SEK 3,345
median SEK 3,254
SEK 2,899–SEK 4,500
eBay soldlivenot blended
107 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 16d ago
$465.83
median $320.00
$192.00–$1,425

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 10,922 · PSA 10 price $967 · float $10,564,305+127% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#65 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
10,922 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $967; that is 127% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 65 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-33% from $385 (2026-06-19)supply +3% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $257 on 2026-10-28 against a window high of $385 on 2026-06-19: 33% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 10,569 → 10,922 (+3%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationSurging Sparks: top-3 share 48% · HHI 0.1023% of set value#1 card in the set
Surging Sparks's cards sum to $1,095 over 252 cards; this card is 23% of that as its #1 card, and the top 3 together hold 48% (HHI 0.10, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 3,254 kr ≈ $327 · 9 asks · 2026-10-28+28% vs US market $257+2% vs eBay sold median $320 (107 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
9 Swedish asks with a median of 3,254 kr ≈ $327 on 2026-10-28, 28% above the US near-mint market of $257 (2026-10-28), and 2% above the eBay sold median of $320 (107 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.