PokémonSpecial Illustration Rare

Hydreigon ex

Surging Sparks · #240 · 2024

Blended market value

$31.42-14.6% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 6d ago

Price history

Latest

$31.42

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
216 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6d ago
$31.42
Traderaliveasksnot blended
6 listings · Any condition · 8d ago
$45.24
SEK 448.67
median SEK 495.00
SEK 328.00–SEK 550.00
eBay soldlivenot blended
33 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$59.56
median $40.00
$28.00–$160.00

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 4,005 · PSA 10 price $124 · float $495,939-61% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#5 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
4,005 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $124; that is 61% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 5 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-29% from $44.13 (2026-06-10)supply +2% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $31.42 on 2026-10-23 against a window high of $44.13 on 2026-06-10: 29% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 3,927 → 4,005 (+2%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationSurging Sparks: top-3 share 48% · HHI 0.10outside the set's top 3
Outside Surging Sparks's top 3, which together hold 48% of a $1,095 set value over 252 cards (HHI 0.10, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 495 kr ≈ $49.91 · 6 asks · 2026-10-21+59% vs US market $31.42+25% vs eBay sold median $40.00 (33 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
6 Swedish asks with a median of 495 kr ≈ $49.91 on 2026-10-21, 59% above the US near-mint market of $31.42 (2026-10-23), and 25% above the eBay sold median of $40.00 (33 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.