PokémonUltra Rare

Pikachu ex

Surging Sparks · #219 · 2024

Blended market value

$25.96-7.3% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 6d ago

Price history

Latest

$25.96

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
257 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6d ago
$25.96
Traderaliveasksnot blended
4 listings · Any condition · 9d ago
$39.25
SEK 389.25
median SEK 429.00
SEK 250.00–SEK 479.00
eBay soldlivenot blended
113 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$95.47
median $72.50
$15.50–$235.99

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 10,817 · PSA 10 price $177 · float $1,914,068-58% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#10 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
10,817 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $177; that is 58% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 10 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-26% from $35.30 (2026-06-10)supply +4% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $25.96 on 2026-10-23 against a window high of $35.30 on 2026-06-10: 26% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 10,426 → 10,817 (+4%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationSurging Sparks: top-3 share 48% · HHI 0.10outside the set's top 3
Outside Surging Sparks's top 3, which together hold 48% of a $1,095 set value over 252 cards (HHI 0.10, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 429 kr ≈ $43.26 · 4 asks · 2026-10-20+67% vs US market $25.96-40% vs eBay sold median $72.50 (113 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
4 Swedish asks with a median of 429 kr ≈ $43.26 on 2026-10-20, 67% above the US near-mint market of $25.96 (2026-10-23), and 40% below the eBay sold median of $72.50 (113 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.