PokémonIllustration Rare

Ceruledge

Surging Sparks · #197 · 2024

Blended market value

$21.40-8.7% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 6d ago

Price history

Latest

$21.40

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
311 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6d ago
$21.40
Traderaliveasksnot blended
6 listings · Any condition · 9d ago
$28.35
SEK 281.17
median SEK 309.00
SEK 220.00–SEK 329.00
eBay soldlivenot blended
72 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$72.21
median $30.00
$13.50–$250.00

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 6,002 · PSA 10 price $165 · float $990,090-54% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#13 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
6,002 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $165; that is 54% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 13 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-22% from $27.38 (2026-07-22)supply +0% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $21.40 on 2026-10-23 against a window high of $27.38 on 2026-07-22: 22% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 5,974 → 6,002 (+0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationSurging Sparks: top-3 share 48% · HHI 0.10outside the set's top 3
Outside Surging Sparks's top 3, which together hold 48% of a $1,095 set value over 252 cards (HHI 0.10, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 309 kr ≈ $31.16 · 6 asks · 2026-10-20+46% vs US market $21.40+4% vs eBay sold median $30.00 (72 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
6 Swedish asks with a median of 309 kr ≈ $31.16 on 2026-10-20, 46% above the US near-mint market of $21.40 (2026-10-23), and 4% above the eBay sold median of $30.00 (72 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.