PokémonSpecial Illustration Rare

Lillie's Determination

Mega Evolution · #184 · 2025

Blended market value

$48.03-13.8% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 5d ago

Price history

Latest

$48.03

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
199 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 5d ago
$48.03
Traderaliveasksnot blended
11 listings · Any condition · 8d ago
$73.08
SEK 721.91
median SEK 745.00
SEK 300.00–SEK 1,400
eBay soldlivenot blended
52 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$142.47
median $115.00
$50.00–$325.00

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 5,927 · PSA 10 price $187 · float $1,105,978-52% vs Mega Evolution curve#9 of 40 in era · slope -0.16
5,927 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $187; that is 52% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 9 of 40, in an era where population barely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.16, R² 0.04, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-37% from $76.61 (2026-05-21)supply +4% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $48.03 on 2026-10-24 against a window high of $76.61 on 2026-05-21: 37% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 5,700 → 5,927 (+4%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationMega Evolution: top-3 share 40% · HHI 0.09outside the set's top 3
Outside Mega Evolution's top 3, which together hold 40% of a $1,337 set value over 188 cards (HHI 0.09, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 745 kr ≈ $75.42 · 11 asks · 2026-10-21+57% vs US market $48.03-34% vs eBay sold median $115 (52 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
11 Swedish asks with a median of 745 kr ≈ $75.42 on 2026-10-21, 57% above the US near-mint market of $48.03 (2026-10-24), and 34% below the eBay sold median of $115 (52 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.