PokémonChase cardSpecial Illustration Rare

Mega Lucario ex

Mega Evolution · #179 · 2025

The third most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($184 raw); PSA 10 population 13,060 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$164.07-6.5% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 6h ago

Price history

Latest

$164.07

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
149 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6h ago
$164.07
Traderaliveasksnot blended
9 listings · Any condition · 6h ago
$244.09
SEK 2,424
median SEK 2,099
SEK 1,620–SEK 3,500
eBay soldlivenot blended
106 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 16d ago
$285.82
median $254.61
$125.00–$559.50

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 13,776 · PSA 10 price $421 · float $5,796,252+24% vs Mega Evolution curve#21 of 40 in era · slope -0.16
13,776 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $421; that is 24% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 21 of 40, in an era where population barely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.16, R² 0.04, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-34% from $247 (2026-06-28)supply +5%
Observed raw near-mint $164 on 2026-10-29 against a window high of $247 on 2026-06-28: 34% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 13,060 → 13,776 (+5%), which is not flat, so new slabs are part of the picture.
Chase concentrationMega Evolution: top-3 share 40% · HHI 0.0912% of set value#3 card in the set
Mega Evolution's cards sum to $1,337 over 188 cards; this card is 12% of that as its #3 card, and the top 3 together hold 40% (HHI 0.09, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 2,099 kr ≈ $211 · 9 asks · 2026-10-29+29% vs US market $164-17% vs eBay sold median $255 (106 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
9 Swedish asks with a median of 2,099 kr ≈ $211 on 2026-10-29, 29% above the US near-mint market of $164 (2026-10-29), and 17% below the eBay sold median of $255 (106 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.