PokémonChase cardMega Hyper Rare

Mega Lucario ex

Mega Evolution · #188 · 2025

The most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($248 raw); PSA 10 population 2,732 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$206.73-12.8% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 6h ago

Price history

Latest

$206.73

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
104 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6h ago
$206.73
Traderaliveasksnot blended
3 listings · Any condition · 6h ago
$282.82
SEK 2,809
median SEK 2,643
SEK 2,383–SEK 3,400
eBay soldlivenot blended
79 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 16d ago
$272.07
median $267.50
$168.50–$375.00

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 2,793 · PSA 10 price $794 · float $2,217,558+80% vs Mega Evolution curve#25 of 40 in era · slope -0.16
2,793 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $794; that is 80% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 25 of 40, in an era where population barely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.16, R² 0.04, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-27% from $285 (2026-06-29)supply +2% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $207 on 2026-10-29 against a window high of $285 on 2026-06-29: 27% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 2,732 → 2,793 (+2%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationMega Evolution: top-3 share 40% · HHI 0.0915% of set value#1 card in the set
Mega Evolution's cards sum to $1,337 over 188 cards; this card is 15% of that as its #1 card, and the top 3 together hold 40% (HHI 0.09, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 2,643 kr ≈ $266 · 3 asks · 2026-10-29+29% vs US market $207-1% vs eBay sold median $268 (79 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
3 Swedish asks with a median of 2,643 kr ≈ $266 on 2026-10-29, 29% above the US near-mint market of $207 (2026-10-29), and 1% below the eBay sold median of $268 (79 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.