PokémonRare Ultra

Misty's Determination

XY Evolutions · #108 · 2016

Blended market value

$33.04-11.5% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 8d ago

Price history

Latest

$33.04

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
205 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 8d ago
$33.04
Traderaliveasksnot blended
6 listings · Any condition · 5d ago
$40.05
SEK 398.33
median SEK 469.00
SEK 219.00–SEK 605.00
eBay soldlivenot blended
3 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 17d ago
$43.00
median $40.21
$38.99–$49.81

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 2,351 · PSA 10 price $224 · float $526,530-54% vs XY curve#3 of 12 in era · slope -0.59
2,351 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $224; that is 54% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 3 of 12, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.59, R² 0.37, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-22% from $42.35 (2026-08-24)supply +0% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $33.04 on 2026-10-21 against a window high of $42.35 on 2026-08-24: 22% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 2,341 → 2,351 (+0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationXY Evolutions: top-3 share 36% · HHI 0.07outside the set's top 3
Outside XY Evolutions's top 3, which together hold 36% of a $791 set value over 113 cards (HHI 0.07, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 469 kr ≈ $47.16 · 6 asks · 2026-10-24+43% vs US market $33.04+17% vs eBay sold median $40.21 (3 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
6 Swedish asks with a median of 469 kr ≈ $47.16 on 2026-10-24, 43% above the US near-mint market of $33.04 (2026-10-21), and 17% above the eBay sold median of $40.21 (3 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.