PokémonChase cardRare Secret

M Charizard-EX

XY Evolutions · #101 · 2016

The set's secret rare, numbered 101/108, and its most valuable card by TCGplayer market on 14 Sept 2026 ($128.20 raw); PSA 10 population 13,398 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$123.39-2.9% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 6h ago

Price history

Latest

$123.39

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
195 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6h ago
$123.39
Traderaliveasksnot blended
17 listings · Any condition · 6h ago
$122.44
SEK 1,216
median SEK 1,215
SEK 650.00–SEK 2,000
eBay soldlivenot blended
20 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 15d ago
$133.34
median $145.00
$59.71–$225.00

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 13,468 · PSA 10 price $667 · float $8,976,826+283% vs XY curve#11 of 12 in era · slope -0.59
13,468 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $667; that is 283% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 11 of 12, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.59, R² 0.37, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-21% from $156 (2026-07-25)supply +1% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $123 on 2026-10-29 against a window high of $156 on 2026-07-25: 21% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 13,398 → 13,468 (+1%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationXY Evolutions: top-3 share 36% · HHI 0.0716% of set value#1 card in the set
XY Evolutions's cards sum to $791 over 113 cards; this card is 16% of that as its #1 card, and the top 3 together hold 36% (HHI 0.07, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 1,215 kr ≈ $122 · 17 asks · 2026-10-29-1% vs US market $123-16% vs eBay sold median $145 (20 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
17 Swedish asks with a median of 1,215 kr ≈ $122 on 2026-10-29, 1% below the US near-mint market of $123 (2026-10-29), and 16% below the eBay sold median of $145 (20 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.