PokémonChase cardRare Holo

Charizard

XY Evolutions · #11 · 2016

The Evolutions reprint of the Base Set Charizard art. TCGplayer market $102.04 raw on 14 Sept 2026 (holofoil), the set's second highest; PSA 10 population 602 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build (reverse foil is a separate PSA line).

Blended market value

$96.24-6.3% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 5h ago

Price history

Latest

$96.24

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
247 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 5h ago
$96.24
Traderaliveasksnot blended
11 listings · Any condition · 6h ago
$97.37
SEK 967.00
median SEK 799.00
SEK 525.00–SEK 1,813
eBay soldlivenot blended
67 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 15d ago
$136.33
median $123.20
$59.99–$299.99

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 603 · PSA 10 price $4,942 (thin comp) · float $2,980,255+358% vs XY curve#12 of 12 in era · slope -0.59
603 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $4,942 (thin: under three sales); that is 358% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 12 of 12, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.59, R² 0.37, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-14% from $113 (2026-07-05)supply +0% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $96.24 on 2026-10-29 against a window high of $113 on 2026-07-05: 14% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 602 → 603 (+0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationXY Evolutions: top-3 share 36% · HHI 0.0712% of set value#2 card in the set
XY Evolutions's cards sum to $791 over 113 cards; this card is 12% of that as its #2 card, and the top 3 together hold 36% (HHI 0.07, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 799 kr ≈ $80.45 · 11 asks · 2026-10-29-16% vs US market $96.24-35% vs eBay sold median $123 (67 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
11 Swedish asks with a median of 799 kr ≈ $80.45 on 2026-10-29, 16% below the US near-mint market of $96.24 (2026-10-29), and 35% below the eBay sold median of $123 (67 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.