PokémonRare Holo EX

Charizard-EX

XY Evolutions · #12 · 2016

Blended market value

$18.26+14.8% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 8d ago

Price history

Latest

$18.26

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
190 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 8d ago
$18.26
Traderaliveasksnot blended
7 listings · Any condition · 3d ago
$47.53
SEK 472.71
median SEK 399.00
SEK 239.00–SEK 1,050
eBay soldlivenot blended
19 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 17d ago
$29.76
median $31.00
$17.50–$51.99

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 4,545 · PSA 10 price $165 · float $750,698-50% vs XY curve#4 of 12 in era · slope -0.59
4,545 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $165; that is 50% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 4 of 12, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.59, R² 0.37, scarcer cards costing more).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-4% from $19.01 (2026-06-16)supply +0% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $18.26 on 2026-10-21 against a window high of $19.01 on 2026-06-16: 4% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 4,531 → 4,545 (+0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationXY Evolutions: top-3 share 36% · HHI 0.07outside the set's top 3
Outside XY Evolutions's top 3, which together hold 36% of a $791 set value over 113 cards (HHI 0.07, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 399 kr ≈ $40.12 · 7 asks · 2026-10-26+120% vs US market $18.26+29% vs eBay sold median $31.00 (19 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
7 Swedish asks with a median of 399 kr ≈ $40.12 on 2026-10-26, 120% above the US near-mint market of $18.26 (2026-10-21), and 29% above the eBay sold median of $31.00 (19 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.