PokémonChase cardRare Holo Star

Charizard ★

EX Dragon Frontiers · #100 · 2006

The Delta Species Gold Star Charizard. TCGplayer market $1,000 raw on 14 Sept 2026, the set's second highest; PSA 10 population 98 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$1,326modelled+8.7% 30d

Modelled headline · 3 estimator sources · 2 observed rows shown, not blended · updated 4h ago

Price history

Latest

$1,000

Average per source

TCGplayermodelled
64 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$1,415
median $1,372
$1,259–$1,632
PriceChartingmodelled
5 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$1,314
median $1,275
$1,222–$1,443
eBaymodelled
24 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$1,223
median $1,187
$966.34–$1,583
Traderalivethinnot blended
1 listings · Any condition · 13d ago
$36,473
SEK 363,705
median SEK 363,705
SEK 363,705–SEK 363,705
eBay soldliveestimatenot blended
36 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 15d ago
$5,730
median $3,447
$5.00–$17,500

The headline is the built-in estimator's number: no live marketplace read carries weight for this condition yet. Rows marked modelled are that estimator, not a marketplace read; the first live read replaces them in the headline. Observed rows marked not blended are regional asks or mixed-condition sales, shown but never averaged into the US near-mint figure.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 98 · PSA 10 price $32,860 · float $3,220,322+59% vs EX Series curve#15 of 22 in era · slope +1.71
98 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $32,860; that is 59% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 15 of 22, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +1.71, R² 0.23, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-290% from $1,000 (2026-08-31)supply 0% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $1,000 on 2026-09-16 against a window high of $1,000 on 2026-08-31: level with it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 98 → 98 (0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationEX Dragon Frontiers: top-3 share 60% · HHI 0.2112% of set value#2 card in the set
EX Dragon Frontiers's cards sum to $8,246 over 101 cards; this card is 12% of that as its #2 card, and the top 3 together hold 60% (HHI 0.21, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 363,705 kr ≈ $36,473 · 1 ask · 2026-10-16 · under the screen's 3-listing threshold+3547% vs US market $1,000+958% vs eBay sold median $3,447 (36 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
1 Swedish ask with a median of 363,705 kr ≈ $36,473 on 2026-10-16, 3547% above the US near-mint market of $1,000 (2026-09-16), and 958% above the eBay sold median of $3,447 (36 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales; under three asks, so the screen shows it unranked.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.