PokémonRare Holo

Heracross δ

EX Dragon Frontiers · #3 · 2006

Blended market value

$44.61+3.6% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 10d ago

Price history

Latest

$44.61

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
57 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 10d ago
$44.61
eBay soldlivethinnot blended
1 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 19d ago
$77.00
median $77.00
$77.00–$77.00

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 40 · PSA 10 price $1,245 · float $49,799-72% vs EX Series curve#4 of 22 in era · slope +1.71
40 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $1,245; that is 72% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 4 of 22, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +1.71, R² 0.23, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-56% from $102 (2026-09-12)supply 0% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $44.61 on 2026-10-19 against a window high of $102 on 2026-09-12: 56% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 40 → 40 (0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationEX Dragon Frontiers: top-3 share 60% · HHI 0.21outside the set's top 3
Outside EX Dragon Frontiers's top 3, which together hold 60% of a $8,246 set value over 101 cards (HHI 0.21, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.