PokémonChase cardSpecial Illustration Rare

Charizard ex

Paldean Fates · #234 · 2024

The second most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($282 raw); PSA 10 population 16,411 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$256.52-3.2% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 1d ago

Price history

Latest

$256.52

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
99 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$256.52
Traderaliveasksnot blended
3 listings · Any condition · 1d ago
$558.80
SEK 5,553
median SEK 4,008
SEK 3,150–SEK 9,500
eBay soldlivenot blended
139 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$430.54
median $325.00
$29.00–$1,000

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 16,503 · PSA 10 price $774 · float $12,767,546+60% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#58 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
16,503 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $774; that is 60% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 58 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-24% from $338 (2026-06-12)supply +1% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $257 on 2026-10-28 against a window high of $338 on 2026-06-12: 24% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 16,411 → 16,503 (+1%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationPaldean Fates: top-3 share 51% · HHI 0.1410% of set value#2 card in the set
Paldean Fates's cards sum to $2,464 over 245 cards; this card is 10% of that as its #2 card, and the top 3 together hold 51% (HHI 0.14, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 4,008 kr ≈ $403 · 3 asks · 2026-10-28+57% vs US market $257+24% vs eBay sold median $325 (139 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
3 Swedish asks with a median of 4,008 kr ≈ $403 on 2026-10-28, 57% above the US near-mint market of $257 (2026-10-28), and 24% above the eBay sold median of $325 (139 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.