PokémonChase cardRare Ultra

Aerodactyl V

Lost Origin · #180 · 2022

The second most valuable card of Lost Origin and its Trainer Gallery by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($211 raw); PSA 10 population 5,455 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$201.78-2.1% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 1d ago

Price history

Latest

$201.78

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
73 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 1d ago
$201.78
Traderalivethinnot blended
2 listings · Any condition · 1d ago
$213.80
SEK 2,125
median SEK 2,299
SEK 1,950–SEK 2,299
eBay soldlivenot blended
34 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 16d ago
$267.42
median $191.06
$115.00–$610.00

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 5,505 · PSA 10 price $509 · float $2,799,788+111% vs Sword & Shield curve#71 of 82 in era · slope +0.46
5,505 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $509; that is 111% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 71 of 82, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.46, R² 0.26, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-13% from $232 (2026-06-14)supply +1% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $202 on 2026-10-28 against a window high of $232 on 2026-06-14: 13% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 5,455 → 5,505 (+1%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationLost Origin: top-3 share 78% · HHI 0.4015% of set value#2 card in the set
Lost Origin's cards sum to $1,347 over 217 cards; this card is 15% of that as its #2 card, and the top 3 together hold 78% (HHI 0.40, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 2,299 kr ≈ $231 · 2 asks · 2026-10-28 · under the screen's 3-listing threshold+15% vs US market $202+21% vs eBay sold median $191 (34 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
2 Swedish asks with a median of 2,299 kr ≈ $231 on 2026-10-28, 15% above the US near-mint market of $202 (2026-10-28), and 21% above the eBay sold median of $191 (34 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales; under three asks, so the screen shows it unranked.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.