PokémonClassic Collection

Shining Magikarp

Celebrations: Classic Collection · #66 · 2021

Blended market value

$29.79-7.6% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 5d ago

Price history

Latest

$29.79

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
200 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 5d ago
$29.79
eBay soldliveestimatenot blended
61 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 18d ago
$116.20
median $102.50
$26.00–$200.00

Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 11,715 · PSA 10 price $164 · float $1,915,637-52% vs Sword & Shield curve#11 of 82 in era · slope +0.46
11,715 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $164; that is 52% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 11 of 82, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.46, R² 0.26, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-31% from $42.88 (2026-07-14)supply +2% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $29.79 on 2026-10-24 against a window high of $42.88 on 2026-07-14: 31% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 11,471 → 11,715 (+2%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationCelebrations: Classic Collection: top-3 share 57% · HHI 0.15outside the set's top 3
Outside Celebrations: Classic Collection's top 3, which together hold 57% of a $412 set value over 25 cards (HHI 0.15, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.