PokémonChase cardClassic Collection

Charizard

Celebrations: Classic Collection · #4 · 2021

The most valuable card in the set by TCGplayer market on 15 Sept 2026 ($165 raw); PSA 10 population 35,964 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$128.21-17.3% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 6h ago

Price history

Latest

$128.21

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
183 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6h ago
$128.21
eBay soldlivenot blended
202 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 16d ago
$342.62
median $280.00
$1.00–$949.00
Traderalivethinnot blended
1 listings · Any condition · 1mo ago
$414.52
SEK 4,050
median SEK 4,050
SEK 4,050–SEK 4,050

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 36,364 · PSA 10 price $559 · float $20,323,476-3% vs Sword & Shield curve#49 of 82 in era · slope +0.46
36,364 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $559; that is 3% below what this era's population curve predicts, rank 49 of 82, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.46, R² 0.26, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-39% from $209 (2026-06-11)supply +1% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $128 on 2026-10-29 against a window high of $209 on 2026-06-11: 39% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 35,964 → 36,364 (+1%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationCelebrations: Classic Collection: top-3 share 57% · HHI 0.1531% of set value#1 card in the set
Celebrations: Classic Collection's cards sum to $412 over 25 cards; this card is 31% of that as its #1 card, and the top 3 together hold 57% (HHI 0.15, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 4,050 kr ≈ $415 · 1 ask · 2026-09-15 · under the screen's 3-listing threshold+223% vs US market $128+48% vs eBay sold median $280 (202 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
1 Swedish ask with a median of 4,050 kr ≈ $415 on 2026-09-15, 223% above the US near-mint market of $128 (2026-10-29), and 48% above the eBay sold median of $280 (202 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales; under three asks, so the screen shows it unranked.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.