Charizard
Base Set · #4 · 1999
The Base Set holo Charizard, the card the vintage market is priced around. TCGplayer market $869.02 raw on 14 Sept 2026, the set's highest; Unlimited PSA 10 population 489 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build (1st Edition and Shadowless are separate PSA lines).
Blended market value
1 observed, 2 thin · read 6h ago
Price history
Latest
$954.65
Average per source
142 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 6h ago
$954.65
2 listings · Any condition · 6h ago
$2,719
SEK 27,000
median SEK 28,999
SEK 25,000–SEK 28,999
140 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 15d ago
$465.78
median $400.00
$100.00–$1,150
3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.
Signals
how these are computed →- Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 491 · PSA 10 price $10,930 · float $5,366,871+71% vs Wizards of the Coast (Vintage) curve#22 of 33 in era · slope -0.16
491 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $10,930; that is 71% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 22 of 33, in an era where population barely predicts PSA 10 price (slope -0.16, R² 0.04, scarcer cards costing more).
- Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-4% from $991 (2026-10-14)supply +0% · flat · under the screen's 30% threshold
Observed raw near-mint $955 on 2026-10-29 against a window high of $991 on 2026-10-14: 4% below it, inside the screen's 30% threshold. PSA 10 population went 489 → 491 (+0%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
- Chase concentrationBase Set: top-3 share 58% · HHI 0.1840% of set value#1 card in the set
Base Set's cards sum to $2,410 over 102 cards; this card is 40% of that as its #1 card, and the top 3 together hold 58% (HHI 0.18, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
- Region spreadTradera median 28,999 kr ≈ $2,920 · 2 asks · 2026-10-29 · under the screen's 3-listing threshold · unlimited, 1st ed. titles excluded · original set only+206% vs US market $955+630% vs eBay sold median $400 (140 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
2 Swedish asks with a median of 28,999 kr ≈ $2,920 on 2026-10-29, 206% above the US near-mint market of $955 (2026-10-29), and 630% above the eBay sold median of $400 (140 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales; under three asks, so the screen shows it unranked; 1st Edition titles excluded, both sides the unlimited print; titles naming the Celebrations: Classic Collection reprint excluded.
Terms used above
- PSA 10 pop
- The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
- thin comp
- An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
- slope
- b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
- float
- PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
- HHI
- Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
- spread
- Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
- asks, not sales
- Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.
Card details
- Set
- Base Set
- Era
- Wizards of the Coast (Vintage)
- Number
- 4/102
- Rarity
- Rare Holo
- Artist
- Mitsuhiro Arita
- Released
- Jan 9, 1999
- Printings
- Unlimited print (this listing); a 1st Edition run exists and is priced separately. Reprinted with the same number in Celebrations: Classic Collection (2021)