30th Celebration, nine days in: the friendliest pull rates of the era, and what a pack holds

The 30th Celebration expansion released worldwide on 16 September 2026. Nine days later two things are known that were not at launch: how often each rarity comes out of a pack, from TCGplayer's opening study published on 24 September, and what the cards trade for, from this catalog's first full read of the set on 25 September. This note puts the two together. It describes a pack; it does not say whether to open one.

Mew ex #15230th Celebrationopen →

Gengar ex #15430th Celebrationopen →

Pikachu ex #15030th Celebrationopen →

Mew ex #15830th Celebrationopen →

The set

128 numbered cards and 33 past the printed total, 161 in all (pokemontcg.io). Three of the 161 are the RGB Mew, numbered R, G and B; neither provider carries a price for them and TCGplayer's study found none in its sample, so they appear below as "no price", not as zero. The 30 Classic Collection reprints found in the same packs are filed as their own set by pokemontcg.io and TCGplayer, and this site follows that.

The pull rates

TCGplayer's study, "3,000+ booster packs", published 24 September 2026. Odds are per pack; the specific-card odds are for one named card of the tier.

• Double Rare, 12 cards: any 1 in 5 (21.02% ± 1.21%), a specific card 1 in 48.
• Illustration Rare, 18 cards: any 1 in 5 (19.72% ± 1.37%), a specific card 1 in 91.
• Classic Collection, 30 cards: any 1 in 10 (10.15% ± 1.04%), a specific card 1 in 295.
• Special Illustration Rare, 10 cards: any 1 in 21 (4.88% ± 0.74%), a specific card 1 in 205.
• Futuristic Rare, 2 cards: any 1 in 120 (0.83% ± 0.31%), a specific card 1 in 240. The interval is over half the rate; the box EV screen badges this tier thin.
• RGB Rare, 3 cards: none opened in the sample; no rate.

The study's own comparison: "Most Mega Evolution Series sets have pull rates of 1:9 for Illustration Rares and in 1:80 for Special Illustration Rares." Here they are 1:5 and 1:21. Kotaku's headline read "Pokémon TCG's 30th Celebration Set Has Incredible Pull Rates, And It's Demolishing Resale Prices"; Sports Illustrated's collectibles desk ran "How The Pokémon 30th Celebration Pull Rates Are Affecting Card Prices". This catalog has one read of the set so far, so it can report where prices stand on 25 September, not how far they have moved; the movement will be visible on the card pages from the second read on.

What the cards trade for, 25 September 2026

TCGplayer market via PokemonPriceTracker, near mint, holofoil printing. 158 of 161 cards priced.

• One of every priced card: $1,267.51.
• The ten Special Illustration Rares: $799.85, 63% of that. Mew ex 152/128 $152.60, Gengar ex 154/128 $126.21, Pikachu ex 150/128 $103.44, Jirachi ex 155/128 $98.18, Mewtwo ex 151/128 $85.50, Pikachu ex 149/128 $80.86, Sylveon ex 153/128 $64.72, Greninja ex 148/128 $36.93, Salamence ex 156/128 $27.72, Fuecoco ex 147/128 $23.69.
• The two Futuristic Rares: Mew ex 158/128 $102.16 and Mewtwo ex 157/128 $72.06.
• The 18 Illustration Rares: $174.90 together; the dearest is Maushold 146/128 at $23.89, the cheapest Scraggy 140/128 at $2.84.
• The 30 Pikachu Rares: $65.37 together, none above $6.53. The 12 Double Rares: $29.89, none above $8.94. The 71 Commons and 18 Rares: $23.28 for all 89.
• Top-three share of set value: 30%, against 60% for Pitch Black on 18 September and 84% for Phantasmal Flames on 15 September. The chase concentration screen carries the set from its next refresh.

What a pack holds

The box EV screen's method: each card's per-pack probability is one over its tier's specific-card odds; the pack's expected value is the sum of probability times observed market value over every card with a rate.

• The four tiers filed in the set: $7.17 per pack, of which the Special Illustration Rares are $3.90, the Illustration Rares $1.92, the Futuristic Rares $0.73 (badged thin) and the Double Rares $0.62. Mew ex 152/128 alone is 10% of the pack's expected value.
• The Classic Collection tier, computed the same way over its own set: $3.69 per pack, 28 of 30 cards priced.
• Together: $10.87 per pack against a loose booster pack at $18.00 on TCGplayer the same day, 60% of the pack price. On 13 September the same ratio was 7% to 36% for Evolving Skies, 151 and Prismatic Evolutions, the three other sets with a published study. The screen shows the two parts separately because the Classic Collection is its own set there.
• No booster box exists for this set in the provider's product list. The Elite Trainer Box is $110.45, the Booster Bundle $122.64 and the Pokémon Center Elite Trainer Box $308.03; their pack counts are not curated yet, so no per-pack figure is given for them.

Two cautions the method carries. The 60% is expected value at today's singles prices; the median pack holds less than the mean, because most of the value sits in the 1-in-21 and 1-in-295 pulls. And a set nine days old has one price read; the second read is what turns these figures into a direction.

Sources: TCGplayer, "Pokémon TCG: 30th Celebration Pull Rates" (24 September 2026, 3,000+ packs); this site's catalog reads of 25 September 2026 (PokemonPriceTracker, TCGplayer market and sealed products); pokemontcg.io set me55; Kotaku and Sports Illustrated, September 2026 (titles as quoted). Pull rates are seeded from the study with its intervals; the box EV screen and the set page carry the same figures.