PokémonChase cardSpecial Illustration Rare

Charizard ex

Scarlet & Violet — 151 · #199 · 2023

The 151 Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare, the set's most valuable card by TCGplayer market on 14 Sept 2026 ($368.71 raw); PSA 10 population 28,523 in BetterPop's 9 Sept 2026 build.

Blended market value

$298.69-15.3% 30d

1 observed, 1 thin · read 5h ago

Price history

Latest

$298.69

Average per source

PokemonPriceTrackerlive
228 listings · Raw · Near Mint · 5h ago
$298.69
Traderaliveasksnot blended
7 listings · Any condition · 2d ago
$543.20
SEK 5,408
median SEK 4,299
SEK 3,899–SEK 12,500
eBay soldlivenot blended
312 sales, 90 days · Any condition · 17d ago
$398.96
median $399.99
$27.00–$800.00

3 estimator rows for unkeyed sources not shown: once a live source has reported they carry no weight in the headline. Every value above is an observed read from the source named on its row; rows marked not blended are shown for comparison only.

Signals

how these are computed →

Pop-adjusted valuePSA 10 pop 28,709 · PSA 10 price $1,363 · float $39,138,980+140% vs Scarlet & Violet curve#66 of 77 in era · slope +0.30
28,709 PSA 10s exist and the last PSA 10 comp was $1,363; that is 140% above what this era's population curve predicts, rank 66 of 77, in an era where population only loosely predicts PSA 10 price (slope +0.30, R² 0.14, the most-graded cards costing most).
Drawdown vs popwindow 2026-03-18 → 2026-10-29-41% from $500 (2026-05-22)supply +1% · flat
Observed raw near-mint $295 on 2026-10-27 against a window high of $500 on 2026-05-22: 41% below it, deep enough for the drawdown screen. PSA 10 population went 28,523 → 28,709 (+1%), flat by the screen's rule, so the fall is not a supply story.
Chase concentrationScarlet & Violet — 151: top-3 share 31% · HHI 0.0618% of set value#1 card in the set
Scarlet & Violet — 151's cards sum to $1,609 over 207 cards; this card is 18% of that as its #1 card, and the top 3 together hold 31% (HHI 0.06, where 1.0 would be one card being the whole set).
Region spreadTradera median 4,299 kr ≈ $432 · 7 asks · 2026-10-27+45% vs US market $299+8% vs eBay sold median $400 (312 sales, 90 d) · asks, not sales
7 Swedish asks with a median of 4,299 kr ≈ $432 on 2026-10-27, 45% above the US near-mint market of $299 (2026-10-29), and 8% above the eBay sold median of $400 (312 sales in 90 days). Asks, not sales.

Terms used above

PSA 10 pop: The number of copies PSA has graded a 10, read by hand from public GemRate-sourced reports on a stated date.
thin comp: An observed PSA 10 price built on fewer than three eBay sales, or one the source flags as an outlier. It is in the fit, but it is one comp, not a market.
slope: b in the era's fit ln(price) = a + b · ln(pop). Negative: scarcer cards cost more. Positive: the most-graded cards cost most, so population is tracking demand rather than scarcity.
float: PSA 10 price × PSA 10 population: the market value of every PSA 10 of the card in existence. A small float is a thin market in both directions.
HHI: Herfindahl–Hirschman index: the sum of every card's squared share of the set's value, from near 0 (value spread evenly) to 1.0 (one card is the whole set).
spread: Tradera median in dollars ÷ US market − 1. Negative means the Swedish asks sit below the US near-mint market, before postage, VAT and duty, none of which is subtracted.
asks, not sales: Tradera figures are live asking prices (plus bids on auctions closing within a day), not completed sales. An ask nobody meets is not a price, and asks run above what sells.